NBA Selection, Best Bets: It’s hard to beat the Celtics twice in a row; what is the impact of Ja Moranta’s injury?

tatum-getty.png
Getty Images

With the NBA regular season 2021-22 now in the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will provide daily selections during the postseason. Quinn himself will make at least one pick for every game from now until the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Prominent game | Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics

The Celtics have not lost three of their four games in the calendar year 2022. They have lost two games in a row just once since mid-January, and one of those games they played without Jason Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford and Robert Williams II. Beating this version of the Celtics once is hard enough. Doing it twice is already amazing. Doing this for the third time will be extremely difficult. Milwaukee had to keep the Celtics on just 10 2 interceptions in the first game to win in Boston, and Giannis Antetokounmpo got an absolutely historic performance to win the 3rd game. Boston Game 2 was unsustainable in its own way, but for the past four months or so, Boston has been a superior team here. Without Khris Middleton, I’m taking points for Boston and driving the Eastern Conference’s best team in the regular season. Choice: Celtics +1.5

Prominent game | Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies were 20-5 without Ja Morant in the regular season, and while that might tempt you to take a double-digit range here, remember, they also lost the 29 minutes Morant had in this series by 32 points. No, the more prudent game here is the sum. The defense boosted that regular season record of 20-5 without Moranta. Memphis was 5.9 points per 100 possessions better in defense without him than with him. In the playoffs, they relied entirely on him in attack, scoring 20.9 points less per 100 possessions when he went to the bench. In total, it’s just one point lower than the 3rd game line here, and the Warriors come out on Saturday with the second best real shooting performance in NBA league history. The scoring should die down a bit on Monday. Choice: below 224.5

Leave a Comment