From equalizing the Sixers and Mavs, to Jaina’s injury and wild ending in Boston, our writers weigh in on every series after a rich weekend in the NBA playoffs.
1. Sixers-Heat is…
Chris Herring: A total of 180 of what was before. While we could technically say the same for the Suns-Mavs, Sixers-Heat feels different. Miami doesn’t have a clear answer on how to guard Joel Embiid and is fighting from the depths, which at one point was his lifeblood. The Heat really needs to insert adjustments.
Robin Lundberg: Good case for Joel Embiid as MVP. We already know that Jokić will receive the award, and I would personally vote for Giannis (who is proving to be the best player in the league). However, it’s quite a big difference to see the Sixers move from unhappy to an evening series with Embiid playing injured.
Rohan Nadkarni: New series. I still have to study the numbers, but it is clear that Joel Embiid has made life much easier for his teammates. While Jimmy Butler was spectacular, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro were inconsistent. And the more Embiid plays, the more likely they are to find their form of MVP caliber. But I think this series will come down to which role players hit theirs. The shifts in the shot for three points in this match were especially extreme.
Michael Pina: Jimmy Butler’s masterpiece theater. With Joel Embiid still great, but not alone thanks to face and thumb injuries, Butler is the best player in this series – an extremely encouraging sign for the Heat team that needs him to be what he was in the bubble. Over four games, Butler averaged 27.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 2.0 steals. When the Heat couldn’t buy a triple in Game 4, Butler’s 40 points kept the competition competitive. He has just seven turnovers with 23 assists and is playing with two legs like anyone lately. Miami should make progress if it continues like this.
Michael Shapiro: There are seven games going on. The return of Joel Embiid has turned this series into an absolute barnburner, and this could become another second-round classic a la Sixers-Raptors in 2019. Miami is struggling to generate open threes with aggravated Kyle Lowry. DeAndre Jordan’s experiment was mercifully completed for Philadelphia. I’ll give the 76ers a slight advantage here as James Harden approaches himself from the Houston era, but nonetheless, we should be prepared for another stunning series for Philadelphia believers.
2. Mavs-Suns is…
Herring: Extremely fun, and tense. But part of me still expects Phoenix to buckle up and get the job done. It was unprecedented to see Chris Paul turn him around seven times in the half and unprecedented to see him foul with the entire quarter to the left. If he manages to make things right, and Phoenix can launch an attack, the Suns will be fine.
Lundberg: Approaching the moment of signing Luka Dončić. Luka already had some great performances in the playoffs, but the Suns’ disturbance in the second round would hamper his statistics. Ironically, the best way to get his individual recognition will be to continue to trust his teammates.
Nadkarni: The story of two cities. The Phoenix attack got cold in Dallas as the Suns struggled with losing the ball and fouls. The Mavs will raise their threes no matter what. Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton have to be better in attack after two ineffective away games. If the Dallas defense really understood them, the Suns can’t win this series. I wonder if Phoenix will give in to Luke Deuce in exchange for staying a few steps closer to the Mavs shooters on the perimeter.
Pina: Mathematical problem for Phoenix. Of course, the best team of the regular season can come back with two wins in the next three games. But it will be hard if the Suns continue to allow so many attempts for three points from the Mavericks ’attack that feasts behind the arc. Dallas tried 57 three-pointers more than Phoenix and scored 40.5% (and Luka Dončić is only 12-for-38). A three-point line can lead to some reductive analysis in a seven-game series, but Dallas can generate a quality look whenever it wants. And when they fall on a decent clip, the ripple effects extend to Phoenix’s own ability to create an effective attack.
Shapiro: Contrast exercise. The Suns are close to the top of the league in both efficiency and volume from inside the port, but now have a 2-2 draw against Dallas after Luka Dončić & Co beat them with three points. The Mavericks had a +33 three-point margin on Sunday. They are at +60 throughout the series. The Phoenix roster is designed to punish mid-level teams and in color, and it’s hard to criticize the system that led to the finals and subsequent season of 64 wins in the last two years. But while Chris Paul struggles with a goal, Dallas finds an opportunity to steal the series.
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3. Bucks-Celtics is…
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Herring: glove. I just wrote a book about the Knicks from the 1990s, and I’m even a little taken aback by how physical this series is, especially with so many no calls. The fourth game on Monday night is the biggest game of the season so far, with Milwaukee having a chance to take command and Boston getting a chance to equalize again.
Lundberg: Close! The margin of error in this series is very small, as evidenced by the difference in Game 3 which is about a tenth of a second. Giannis continues to show that he can’t stop even if his shot is slow, but the Celtics will need to say the same for Jason Tatum if they want to win the series.
Nadkarni: Too much fun. What an exciting series! Giannis was out of this world considering he plays without Khris Middleton. The Celtics are probably on an emotional roller coaster after their soon return in Game 3. I still think Boston is a better team. At the same time, Giannis is by far the best player in this. I really don’t know what to do with this. Milwaukee seems to find it harder to create a good look. Giannis is capable of making it irrelevant.
Pina: Hard to break down. Giannis Antetokounmpo found a way to break through Boston’s defense in Game 3, scoring 42 points in 30 shots, deft touch, elegant leg work and the ability to turn his shoulder into a ram. But Milwaukee’s midfield foul was still awful – generating just under 0.756 points per game – and the Celtics were in a good position to take a 2-1 lead, with a pair of good looks behind the three-point line that ended. All things considered, Boston should still feel good about the situation it finds itself in.
Shapiro: Return. The third game between Boston and Milwaukee featured the best of the basketball playoffs, with astonishing intensity paired with physicality and toughness unseen in a regular season. Both of these teams play elite defensive figures, and neither attack guarantees they will get 100 points in a given night. This is the best series of the 2nd round for my money considering the talent and perseverance shown.
4. Warriors-Grizlies is…
Herring: Probably over, assuming Morant isn’t in Game 4. Yes, Memphis have hearts and have had a 20-5 star without their star this season, in part because of how much better he plays in defense when Morant is off the floor. But the playoff results are different and there is no doubt that Morant’s 38.3 points per game would help against a busy club like Golden State.
Lundberg: fiercely. There seems to be controversy after every game in this series, and the last one is of course about Ja Morant’s injury. However, I don’t expect the conversation to continue for long as the Warriors are likely to end it sooner rather than later.
Nadkarni: Loud. The Grizzlies public objected to the Jordan Poole-Ja Morant game was quite embarrassing. I hope Morant will be able to play. At the same time, perhaps no team is better equipped to play without their star than Memphis, who had a 20-5 without Jaa during the regular season. Mostly I want to see the focus back on the hoops here. The Warriors also probably laid him down a bit after Dillon Brooks ’foul. Speaking of which, bringing Brooks back for the fourth game should help Grizz. But I don’t see them scaring the Oaks unless Morant can’t leave.
Pina: Exhaustion test. This series was marked by evictions, suspensions, injuries and accusations of malicious intent. I Morant probably won’t take part in Game 4 after Jordan Poole’s hand came in contact with his knee. Gary Payton II has been off the field for weeks due to an elbow fracture after Dillon Brooks hit him on the head, in the air, during a quick break. Without Morant, the Grizzlies will need Tyus Jones, the restrained Desmond Bane, Brooks and Jaren Jackson Jr. to carry out their attack for at least one match. (On the other hand, it will probably be harder for the Warriors to score than in the first three games.) This series seems to be over, but don’t count Memphis yet.
Shapiro: Loss of plot. What should be a fun contrast to the dynasty’s return versus a fierce novice has turned into a mess of dirty offenses, unfortunate injuries and complaints at a press conference, and Steve Kerr and Taylor Jenkins are more than happy to continue exchanging complaints. Let’s hope Moranta is back on the floor for Game 5, and maybe Gary Payton II could be back before the end of the postseason.
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